An out-of-market buyer touring the Highway 6 frontage in July 2026 sees orange barrels on the Twin Bridges, temporary lane shifts, and a listing sheet that reads like a construction-discount pitch. That buyer is likely to underwrite the parcel the same way the portals frame it: distressed traffic, discounted rent, wait it out.
That framing misses the second clock on the corridor. While TxDOT is rebuilding the bridges, the City of Waco has just anchored a 252-acre retail node at the I-35 and Highway 6 interchange, and the corridor itself is finishing a slow conversion from arterial to limited-access. The construction friction is temporary. The reconfiguration is not. Frontage that traded on drive-by counts in 2023 is being repriced on interchange proximity for 2029, and interior parcels are quietly separating from frontage parcels in ways a portal median cannot show.
"It's the best vacant tract on I-35, between Laredo and Minneapolis. That's 260 acres at an intersection like Highway 6. You can't find that in a major city." — Bland Cromwell, CCIM, SIOR, who has marketed the tract for more than two decades
Two clocks are running on Highway 6
The construction clock is loud and short. The anchor clock is quiet and permanent. Reading them together is the entire underwriting exercise on this corridor right now.
| Clock | What it is | Ends when |
|---|---|---|
| Construction | Twin Bridges over Lake Waco rebuild by Orion Construction, roughly a third of foundation shafts complete as of March 2026, traffic shifting to one lane each direction on the northbound span by summer, then roughly 18 months on the southbound side before shifting again; the $234 million I-35 South reconstruction running about 14 months in as of March 2026 | 2029, when the expanded bridge opens with three lanes each direction and 10-foot shoulders |
| Anchor | A public-private partnership approved by Waco City Council on May 19, 2026 between the City and Waco Gateway, LLC covering roughly 252 acres at I-35 South near New Road and Loop 340, with infrastructure funded through the city's Tax Increment Finance Zone 4 | Multi-decade. Once anchors sign, the trip generation pattern is fixed. |
The buyer who underwrites only the first clock is buying a temporary discount. The seller who prices only the first clock is leaving the second one on the table.
What the Waco Gateway approval actually did
The Council vote in May did more than green-light a retail center. It set the performance rails that will determine how the anchor clock runs.
- The city committed up to $33 million in roadway and infrastructure improvements, split into a northern phase tied to a proposed warehouse-style retailer and a southern phase tied to additional big box development.
- Up to $18 million in future sales tax reimbursements are available to the developer, but only after the project generates at least $3.5 million annually in sales tax revenue.
- The developer commitment across two phases exceeds $105 million.
- The north side of the interchange already houses Ross, HomeGoods, Chick-fil-A, P.F. Chang's and several hotels; the west side of I-35 at Highway 6 has remained largely undeveloped.
Read the reimbursement structure carefully. It is a performance floor, not a subsidy. The city has effectively told the market what the minimum viable retail intensity looks like on this parcel, and that number, $3.5 million a year in sales tax, cascades into the trip generation, the parking demand, and the outparcel pricing on every adjacent tract. Underwriting a nearby frontage lot without indexing to that floor is underwriting yesterday's corridor.
Why frontage is not the same asset it was in 2023
Highway 6 has been converting to limited-access standards in phases. The section concurrent with Loop 340 through Waco and Robinson has been converted to limited-access standards with a grade separation at Old Robinson Road, widening across new bridges over the Brazos River and a Union Pacific rail line, and continuous frontage roads from I-35 to U.S. 77. That work wrapped in 2018 and is the local precedent for what the Twin Bridges rebuild will finish.
Limited-access conversion does two things to commercial value at once. It permanently concentrates access at controlled points, which raises the value of parcels near interchanges and lowers the value of mid-block parcels that used to enjoy direct curb cuts. It also converts the frontage road into the corridor's real retail street, which changes traffic pattern, dwell time, and signage economics for every existing tenant along it. A 2018 lease written against unrestricted arterial traffic is not the lease you would write today, and a 2029 lease will look different again.
The parcels that gained the most from the Old Robinson Road conversion were the ones adjacent to the new grade-separated interchange. The parcels that lost were the ones a quarter mile away with a curb cut that is no longer a curb cut. That pattern is repeating.
A tale of two parcels
Consider two hypothetical Highway 6 frontage tracts, both listed today, both showing the same portal-level "median" per acre.
Parcel A sits within a mile of the Waco Gateway 252 acres, on the same side of the interchange as the new roadway phase the city is funding. Its underwriting is not about the current traffic count. It is about the anchor tenants Waco Gateway signs, the trip generation study those tenants file, and whether Parcel A becomes an outparcel play, a supporting-use play, or a redevelopment hold. The $3.5 million annual sales tax floor is the anchor mechanic that turns portal comps stale.
Parcel B sits three miles up Highway 6 on a stretch that will be limited-access when the Twin Bridges are finished. It has good visibility today from mainlane traffic. In 2029, that visibility will be from a frontage road, and the U-turn geometry will decide whether it functions as a right-in/right-out convenience site or a destination site. A buyer paying today's price for tomorrow's geometry is paying for the wrong asset.
Both parcels can pencil. They pencil for different buyers, on different holds, at different cap rates. The portal median hides the fork.
Underwriting questions to run before you offer
Any offer on a Highway 6 commercial parcel between now and 2029 should be stress-tested against a short list that the median does not answer:
- Where does the parcel sit relative to the Waco Gateway phase boundaries, and which of the two city-funded roadway phases does it depend on?
- What is the parcel's post-2029 access geometry once the Twin Bridges configuration and any related frontage road work is finalized? A curb cut today is not a curb cut forever.
- If the anchor development hits the $3.5 million annual sales tax threshold and begins triggering reimbursements, what does that intensity do to your parcel's highest and best use assumption?
- Is your rent roll indexed to mainlane traffic or to interchange-adjacent traffic? The two will diverge as the corridor converts.
- What does your lender's construction-period vacancy assumption look like through 2029, and is it separated from the stabilized assumption afterward? Blending the two produces a number that fits neither.
- If you are the seller, is your ask indexed to a 2023 arterial comp or to a 2029 interchange comp? One is closing this year. The other is closing next year at a different number.
The point of the list is not to price the parcel down. It is to price the correct parcel.
FAQ
Is the Twin Bridges construction actually hurting Highway 6 commercial values right now, or is that just a portal narrative? Both are true. Short-term leasing velocity on affected frontage segments is softer while lane shifts are in place, but the exit configuration is known: three lanes each direction with 10-foot shoulders at completion in 2029. A 2026 underwriting that does not model a step-change in 2029 is modeling the wrong asset.
How is Waco Gateway different from the older retail already at I-35 and Highway 6? The existing north-side cluster grew organically over years. Waco Gateway is a single 252-acre planned development with performance-tied city infrastructure and a defined sales-tax floor, which anchors the interchange as a retail node rather than a strip. That distinction matters for outparcel pricing and for anyone holding land within a mile of the tract.
Does the TIF Zone 4 structure affect nearby property taxes? The reimbursement mechanic runs against sales tax generated by the development itself, not against surrounding property owners' bills. The relevant effect for neighboring commercial owners is indirect: the infrastructure the city is funding, particularly the new roadway off New Road, changes access and traffic patterns that eventually flow into surrounding valuations. Anyone with a specific tax question should route it through their own accountant or tax advisor.
Who is the seller most likely to misprice their parcel in this window? The owner who bought before 2018, underwrites off a memory of arterial traffic, and lists into a market that is trading on a 2029 interchange thesis. The gap between those two frames is where advisory conversations earn their keep.
If you are weighing a Highway 6 acquisition, disposition, or hold-versus-reposition decision inside this window, the corridor rewards owners who separate the construction clock from the anchor clock and price to the right one. Kelly Realtors Commercial works these files daily across Waco's growth corridors. Let's get started.
